Publications

2023

  1. Li, X., Ault, T.R., Richardson, A.D., Carrillo, C.M., Lawrence, D.M., Lombardozzi, D., Frolking, S., Herrera, D.A. and Moon, M. (2023) Impacts of shifting phenology on boundary layer dynamics in North America in the CESM. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 330, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109286.
  2. Li, X., Ault, T.R., Evans, C.P., Lehner, F., Carrillo, C.M., Donnelly, A., Crimmins, T., Gallinat, A.S., and Schwartz, M.D. (2023) Diverging Northern Hemisphere trends in meteorological versus ecological indicators of spring onset in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(8), doi: 10.1029/2023GL102833.
  3. Herrera, et al., (2023): Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing. PLOS Climate 2 (11), e0000303 2023. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000303.
  4. Sward, J.A., T.R. Ault, K.M. Zhang (2023): Spatial biases revealed by LiDAR in a multiphysics WRF ensemble designed for offshore wind. Energy 262, 125346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125346.

2022

  1. Evans, C.P., Coats, S., Carrillo, C.M., Li, X., Alessi, M.J., Herrera, D.A., Benton, B.N., and Ault, T.R. (2022) Intrinsic century-scale variability in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and their influence on western US hydroclimate. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(23), doi: 10.1029/2022GL099770.
  2. Carrillo, C.M., Coats, S., Newman, M., Herrera, D.A., Li, X., Moore, R., Shin, S., Stevenson, S., Lehner, F., and Ault, T.R. (2022) Megadrought: A series of unfortunate La Niña events? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(21), doi: 10.1029/2021JD036376.
  3. Carrillo, C.M., Evans, C.P., Belcher, B.N., and Ault, T.R. (2022): How predictable is short-term drought in the northeastern United States? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 23(9), doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0237.1.
  4. Alessi, M.J., Herrera, D., Evans, C.P., DeGaetano, A., and Ault, T.R. (2022): Antecedent soil moisture conditions determine land-atmospheric coupling and drought risk in northeast United States, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(6), doi: 10.1029/2021JD034740.
  5. Benton, B.N., Alessi, M.J., Herrera, D.A., Li, X., Carrillo, C.M., and Ault, T.R. (2022): Minor impacts of major volcanic eruptions on hurricanes in dynamically-downscaled last millennium simulations, Climate Dynamics, 19pp. doi: 10.1007/s00382-021-06057-4.
  6. Li, X., Melaas, E., Carrillo, C.M., Ault, T.R., Richardson, A.D., Lawrence, P., Friedl, M.A., Seyednasrollah, B., Lawrence, D.M., and Young, A.M. (2022): A comparison of land surface phenology in the Northern Hemisphere derived from satellite remote sensing and the Community Land Model, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0169.1.
  7. Sward, J.A., Ault, T.R., and Zhang, K.M. (2022): Genetic algorithm selection of the weather research and forecasting model physics to support wind and solar energy integration, Energy, 254, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124367.

2021

  1.  Herrera, D., Mendez-Tejada, R., Centella-Artola, A., Martínez-Castro, D., Ault, T.R., and Delanoy, R. (2021): Projected hydroclimate changes on Hispaniola Island through the 21st century in CMIP6 models, Atmosphere, 12(1), doi:10.3390/atmos12010006.
  2. Ortiz-Bobea, A., Ault, T.R., Carrillo, C.M., Chambers, R.G., and Lobell, D.B. (2021): Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth, Nature Climate Change, 11, 306-312, doi: 10.1038/s41558-021-01000-1.

2020

  1. Arcusa, S.H. McKay, N.P., Carrillo, C.M., and Ault, T.R. (2020): Dust-drought nexus in the southwestern United States: A proxy-model comparison approach, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 35(12), doi: 10.1029/2020PA004046.
  2. Ault, T.R. (2020): On the essentials of drought in a changing climate. Science, 368(6488), 256-260, doi: 10.1126/science.aaz5492.
  3. Herrera, D., Ault, T.R., Carrillo, C.M., Fasullo, J., Li, X., Evans, C.P., Alessi, M., and Mahowald, N. (2020): Dynamical characteristics of drought in the Caribbean from observations and simulations, Journal of Climate, 33(24), doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0100.1.

2019

  1. Ortiz-Bobea, A., H. Wang, C. M. Carrillo, T.R. Ault (2019): Unpacking the climatic drivers of US agricultural yields. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (6), 064003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1e75.
  2. Richardson AD, Hufkens K, Li X, Ault TR. (2019): Testing the Hopkins Law of Bioclimatics with PhenoCam data. Applications in Plant Sciences, 7(3):e01228. doi: 10.1002/aps3.1228.
  3. Routson, C. C., N. P. McKay, D. S. Kaufman, M. P. Erb, H. Goosse, B. N. Shuman, J. R. Rodysill, T.R. Ault (2019): Mid-latitude net precipitation decreased with Arctic warming during the Holocene. Nature, 568(7750), 83, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1060-3.
  4. Zhu, F. J. Emile-Geay, N. P. McKay, G. J. Hakim, D. Khider, T. R. Ault, E. J. Steig, S. Dee, J. W Kirchner (2019): Climate models can correctly simulate the continuum of global-average temperature variability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (18), 8728-8733, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1809959116.

2018

  1. Ault, T. R. and St. George, S (2018): Unraveling the mysteries of megadrought. Physics Today (Cover) 71, 8, 44 (2018), https://doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.3997.
  2. Ault, T. R., St. George, S., Smerdon, J. E., Coats, S., Mankin, J. S., Carrillo, C. M., Cook, B. I., Stevenson, S. (2018): A robust null hypothesis for the potential causes of megadrought in western North America. Journal of Climate, 31, 3–24, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0154.1.
  3. Carrillo, C. M., Ault, T. R. & Wilks, D. S (2018): Spring onset predictability in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 5912-5926, doi: 10.1029/2018JD028597.
  4. Dahlin, K. M. & Ault, T. R. Global linkages between teleconnection patterns and the terrestrial biosphere (2018): J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 69, 56–63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2018.02.017
  5. Herrera, D. A., Ault, T. R., Fasullo, J. T.,Coats, S. J., Carrillo, C. M., Cook, B. I., &Williams, A. P. (2018): Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan-Caribbean drought by anthropogenic warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(10), 619–10, 626, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079408.
  6. Izquierdo-Verdiguier, E., Zurita-Milla, R., Ault, T. R. & Schwartz, M. D (2018): Development and analysis of spring plant phenology products: 36 years of 1-km grids over the conterminous US. For. Meteorol. 262, 34–41.
  7. Stevenson, S., Overpeck, J. T., Fasullo, J., Coats, S., Parsons, L., Ault, T. R., Otto-Bliesner, B., Loope, G., and Cole, J. E. (2018):  Climate variability, volcanic forcing, and last millennium hydroclimate extremes.  Journal of Climate, 31, 4309–4327, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0407.1

2017

  1. Ault, T. R. (2017): Reconciling disparate views on decadal climate variability from proxies and models, PAGES Magazine, vol. 25(1), 68-70, doi:10.22498/pages.25.1.68.
  2. Dee, S.G., Parsons, L.A., Loope, G.R., Overpeck, J.T., Ault, T.R., Emile-Geay, J. (2017): Improved spectral comparisons of paleoclimate models and observations via proxy system modeling: Implications for multi-decadal variability. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 476, 2017, Pages 34-46, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2017.07.036.
  3. Herrera, D. H., and Ault, T. R. (2017): Insights from a new high-resolution drought atlas for the Caribbean spanning 1950 to 2016. Journal of Climate, 7801–7825, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0838.1.
  4. Parsons, L.A., Loope, G.R., Overpeck, J.T., Ault, T.R., Stouffer, R., and Cole, J.E. (2017): Temperature and Precipitation Variance in CMIP5 Simulations and Paleoclimate Records of the Last Millennium. J. Climate, 30, 8885–8912, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0863.1.
  5. PAGES Hydro2k Consortium (2017): Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Clim. Past, 13, 1851-1900, doi:10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017.

2016

  1. Ault, T. R. (2016): Water resources: Island water stress. Nature Climate Change, 6(12):1062–1063.
  2. Ault, T. R., Mankin, J. S., Cook, B. I., and Smerdon, J. E. (2016): Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Science Advances, 2(10):e1600873.
  3. Labe, Z., Ault, T.R., and Zurita-Milla, R. (2016): Identifying anomalously early spring onsets in the CESM large ensemble project. Climate Dynamics, pages 1–18.
  4. Monahan, W. B., Rosemartin, A., Gerst, K. L., Fisichelli, N. A., Ault, T.R., Schwartz, M. D., Gross, J. E., and Weltzin, J. F. (2016): Climate change is advancing spring onset across the us national park system. Ecosphere, 7(10).
  5. Newman, M, M. A. Alexander, T.R. Ault; K. M. Cobb, C. Deser, E. Di Lorenzo, N. J. Mantua, A. J. Miller, S. Minobe; H. Nakamura, N. Schneider; D. J. Vimont, A. Phillips, J. D. Scott, C. A. Smith (2016): The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1.
  6. Smerdon, J.E., S. Coats, and T.R. Ault (2016), Model-Dependent Spatial Skill in Pseudoproxy Experiments Testing Climate Field Reconstruction Methods for the Common Era, Climate Dynamics, 2684, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2684-0.

2015

  1. Ault, T. R., M. D. Schwartz, R. Zurita-Milla, J. F. Weltzin, and J. L. Betancourt (2015): Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices, Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00736.1.
  2. Ault, T. R. Zurita-Milla, M. D. Schwartz (2015): A Matlab© toolbox for calculating spring indices from daily meteorological data, Computers & Geosciences, 83, 46-53, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2015.06.015.
  3. Cook, B.I., T.R. Ault, and J.E. Smerdon (2015): Unprecedented 21st-century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains. Sci. Adv., 1, no. 1, e1400082, doi:10.1126/sciadv.1400082.

2014

  1. Ault, T. R.,E. Cole, J.T. Overpeck, G.T. Pederson and D. Meko, (2014): Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00282.1.
  2. St. George, S., and Ault, T. R., (2014): The imprint of climate within Northern Hemisphere trees, Quaternary Science Reviews, 89, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.01.007.

2013

  1. Ault, T. R., M. Henebry, K. M. de Beurs, M. D. Schwartz, J. L. Betancourt, David Moore (2013): The False Spring of 2012, Earliest in the North American Record. EOS, 94, 181-183.
  2. Ault, T.R., C. Deser, M. Newman, and J. Emile-Geay (2013): Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (13), doi: 10.1002/grl.50647.
  3. Ault, T.R., J.E. Cole, G.T. Pederson, J.T, Overpeck, S. St. George, B. Otto-Bliesner, C. Deser, and C. Woodhouse (2013): The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium. Journal of Climate, 26 (16), doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00732.1.
  4. St. George, S., Ault, T.R., and Torbenson, M (2013): The rarity of absent growth rings in Northern Hemisphere forests outside the American Southwest. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (14), doi: 10.1002/grl.50743.