2023
- Li, X., Ault, T.R., Richardson, A.D., Carrillo, C.M., Lawrence, D.M., Lombardozzi, D., Frolking, S., Herrera, D.A. and Moon, M. (2023) Impacts of shifting phenology on boundary layer dynamics in North America in the CESM. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 330, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109286.
- Li, X., Ault, T.R., Evans, C.P., Lehner, F., Carrillo, C.M., Donnelly, A., Crimmins, T., Gallinat, A.S., and Schwartz, M.D. (2023) Diverging Northern Hemisphere trends in meteorological versus ecological indicators of spring onset in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(8), doi: 10.1029/2023GL102833.
- Herrera, et al., (2023): Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing. PLOS Climate 2 (11), e0000303 2023. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000303.
- Sward, J.A., T.R. Ault, K.M. Zhang (2023): Spatial biases revealed by LiDAR in a multiphysics WRF ensemble designed for offshore wind. Energy 262, 125346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125346.
2022
- Evans, C.P., Coats, S., Carrillo, C.M., Li, X., Alessi, M.J., Herrera, D.A., Benton, B.N., and Ault, T.R. (2022) Intrinsic century-scale variability in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and their influence on western US hydroclimate. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(23), doi: 10.1029/2022GL099770.
- Carrillo, C.M., Coats, S., Newman, M., Herrera, D.A., Li, X., Moore, R., Shin, S., Stevenson, S., Lehner, F., and Ault, T.R. (2022) Megadrought: A series of unfortunate La Niña events? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(21), doi: 10.1029/2021JD036376.
- Carrillo, C.M., Evans, C.P., Belcher, B.N., and Ault, T.R. (2022): How predictable is short-term drought in the northeastern United States? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 23(9), doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0237.1.
- Alessi, M.J., Herrera, D., Evans, C.P., DeGaetano, A., and Ault, T.R. (2022): Antecedent soil moisture conditions determine land-atmospheric coupling and drought risk in northeast United States, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(6), doi: 10.1029/2021JD034740.
- Benton, B.N., Alessi, M.J., Herrera, D.A., Li, X., Carrillo, C.M., and Ault, T.R. (2022): Minor impacts of major volcanic eruptions on hurricanes in dynamically-downscaled last millennium simulations, Climate Dynamics, 19pp. doi: 10.1007/s00382-021-06057-4.
- Li, X., Melaas, E., Carrillo, C.M., Ault, T.R., Richardson, A.D., Lawrence, P., Friedl, M.A., Seyednasrollah, B., Lawrence, D.M., and Young, A.M. (2022): A comparison of land surface phenology in the Northern Hemisphere derived from satellite remote sensing and the Community Land Model, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0169.1.
- Sward, J.A., Ault, T.R., and Zhang, K.M. (2022): Genetic algorithm selection of the weather research and forecasting model physics to support wind and solar energy integration, Energy, 254, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124367.
2021
- Herrera, D., Mendez-Tejada, R., Centella-Artola, A., Martínez-Castro, D., Ault, T.R., and Delanoy, R. (2021): Projected hydroclimate changes on Hispaniola Island through the 21st century in CMIP6 models, Atmosphere, 12(1), doi:10.3390/atmos12010006.
- Ortiz-Bobea, A., Ault, T.R., Carrillo, C.M., Chambers, R.G., and Lobell, D.B. (2021): Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth, Nature Climate Change, 11, 306-312, doi: 10.1038/s41558-021-01000-1.
2020
- Arcusa, S.H. McKay, N.P., Carrillo, C.M., and Ault, T.R. (2020): Dust-drought nexus in the southwestern United States: A proxy-model comparison approach, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 35(12), doi: 10.1029/2020PA004046.
- Ault, T.R. (2020): On the essentials of drought in a changing climate. Science, 368(6488), 256-260, doi: 10.1126/science.aaz5492.
- Herrera, D., Ault, T.R., Carrillo, C.M., Fasullo, J., Li, X., Evans, C.P., Alessi, M., and Mahowald, N. (2020): Dynamical characteristics of drought in the Caribbean from observations and simulations, Journal of Climate, 33(24), doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0100.1.
2019
- Ortiz-Bobea, A., H. Wang, C. M. Carrillo, T.R. Ault (2019): Unpacking the climatic drivers of US agricultural yields. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (6), 064003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1e75.
- Richardson AD, Hufkens K, Li X, Ault TR. (2019): Testing the Hopkins Law of Bioclimatics with PhenoCam data. Applications in Plant Sciences, 7(3):e01228. doi: 10.1002/aps3.1228.
- Routson, C. C., N. P. McKay, D. S. Kaufman, M. P. Erb, H. Goosse, B. N. Shuman, J. R. Rodysill, T.R. Ault (2019): Mid-latitude net precipitation decreased with Arctic warming during the Holocene. Nature, 568(7750), 83, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1060-3.
- Zhu, F. J. Emile-Geay, N. P. McKay, G. J. Hakim, D. Khider, T. R. Ault, E. J. Steig, S. Dee, J. W Kirchner (2019): Climate models can correctly simulate the continuum of global-average temperature variability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (18), 8728-8733, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1809959116.
2018
- Ault, T. R. and St. George, S (2018): Unraveling the mysteries of megadrought. Physics Today (Cover) 71, 8, 44 (2018), https://doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.3997.
- Ault, T. R., St. George, S., Smerdon, J. E., Coats, S., Mankin, J. S., Carrillo, C. M., Cook, B. I., Stevenson, S. (2018): A robust null hypothesis for the potential causes of megadrought in western North America. Journal of Climate, 31, 3–24, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0154.1.
- Carrillo, C. M., Ault, T. R. & Wilks, D. S (2018): Spring onset predictability in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 5912-5926, doi: 10.1029/2018JD028597.
- Dahlin, K. M. & Ault, T. R. Global linkages between teleconnection patterns and the terrestrial biosphere (2018): J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 69, 56–63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2018.02.017
- Herrera, D. A., Ault, T. R., Fasullo, J. T.,Coats, S. J., Carrillo, C. M., Cook, B. I., &Williams, A. P. (2018): Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan-Caribbean drought by anthropogenic warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(10), 619–10, 626, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079408.
- Izquierdo-Verdiguier, E., Zurita-Milla, R., Ault, T. R. & Schwartz, M. D (2018): Development and analysis of spring plant phenology products: 36 years of 1-km grids over the conterminous US. For. Meteorol. 262, 34–41.
- Stevenson, S., Overpeck, J. T., Fasullo, J., Coats, S., Parsons, L., Ault, T. R., Otto-Bliesner, B., Loope, G., and Cole, J. E. (2018): Climate variability, volcanic forcing, and last millennium hydroclimate extremes. Journal of Climate, 31, 4309–4327, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0407.1
2017
- Ault, T. R. (2017): Reconciling disparate views on decadal climate variability from proxies and models, PAGES Magazine, vol. 25(1), 68-70, doi:10.22498/pages.25.1.68.
- Dee, S.G., Parsons, L.A., Loope, G.R., Overpeck, J.T., Ault, T.R., Emile-Geay, J. (2017): Improved spectral comparisons of paleoclimate models and observations via proxy system modeling: Implications for multi-decadal variability. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 476, 2017, Pages 34-46, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2017.07.036.
- Herrera, D. H., and Ault, T. R. (2017): Insights from a new high-resolution drought atlas for the Caribbean spanning 1950 to 2016. Journal of Climate, 7801–7825, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0838.1.
- Parsons, L.A., Loope, G.R., Overpeck, J.T., Ault, T.R., Stouffer, R., and Cole, J.E. (2017): Temperature and Precipitation Variance in CMIP5 Simulations and Paleoclimate Records of the Last Millennium. J. Climate, 30, 8885–8912, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0863.1.
- PAGES Hydro2k Consortium (2017): Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Clim. Past, 13, 1851-1900, doi:10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017.
2016
- Ault, T. R. (2016): Water resources: Island water stress. Nature Climate Change, 6(12):1062–1063.
- Ault, T. R., Mankin, J. S., Cook, B. I., and Smerdon, J. E. (2016): Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Science Advances, 2(10):e1600873.
- Labe, Z., Ault, T.R., and Zurita-Milla, R. (2016): Identifying anomalously early spring onsets in the CESM large ensemble project. Climate Dynamics, pages 1–18.
- Monahan, W. B., Rosemartin, A., Gerst, K. L., Fisichelli, N. A., Ault, T.R., Schwartz, M. D., Gross, J. E., and Weltzin, J. F. (2016): Climate change is advancing spring onset across the us national park system. Ecosphere, 7(10).
- Newman, M, M. A. Alexander, T.R. Ault; K. M. Cobb, C. Deser, E. Di Lorenzo, N. J. Mantua, A. J. Miller, S. Minobe; H. Nakamura, N. Schneider; D. J. Vimont, A. Phillips, J. D. Scott, C. A. Smith (2016): The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1.
- Smerdon, J.E., S. Coats, and T.R. Ault (2016), Model-Dependent Spatial Skill in Pseudoproxy Experiments Testing Climate Field Reconstruction Methods for the Common Era, Climate Dynamics, 2684, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2684-0.
2015
- Ault, T. R., M. D. Schwartz, R. Zurita-Milla, J. F. Weltzin, and J. L. Betancourt (2015): Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices, Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00736.1.
- Ault, T. R. Zurita-Milla, M. D. Schwartz (2015): A Matlab© toolbox for calculating spring indices from daily meteorological data, Computers & Geosciences, 83, 46-53, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2015.06.015.
- Cook, B.I., T.R. Ault, and J.E. Smerdon (2015): Unprecedented 21st-century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains. Sci. Adv., 1, no. 1, e1400082, doi:10.1126/sciadv.1400082.
2014
- Ault, T. R.,E. Cole, J.T. Overpeck, G.T. Pederson and D. Meko, (2014): Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00282.1.
- St. George, S., and Ault, T. R., (2014): The imprint of climate within Northern Hemisphere trees, Quaternary Science Reviews, 89, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.01.007.
2013
- Ault, T. R., M. Henebry, K. M. de Beurs, M. D. Schwartz, J. L. Betancourt, David Moore (2013): The False Spring of 2012, Earliest in the North American Record. EOS, 94, 181-183.
- Ault, T.R., C. Deser, M. Newman, and J. Emile-Geay (2013): Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (13), doi: 10.1002/grl.50647.
- Ault, T.R., J.E. Cole, G.T. Pederson, J.T, Overpeck, S. St. George, B. Otto-Bliesner, C. Deser, and C. Woodhouse (2013): The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium. Journal of Climate, 26 (16), doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00732.1.
- St. George, S., Ault, T.R., and Torbenson, M (2013): The rarity of absent growth rings in Northern Hemisphere forests outside the American Southwest. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (14), doi: 10.1002/grl.50743.