Ault, T.R., S. St. George, J.E. Smerdon, S. Coats, J.S. Mankin, C.M. Carrillo, B.I. Cook, and S. Stevenson, 2018: A Robust Null Hypothesis for the Potential Causes of Megadrought in Western North America. J. Climate, 31, 3–24,

Ault, T. R. (2017): Reconciling disparate views on decadal climate variability from proxies and models. PAGES Magazine, vol. 25(1), 68-70,

Herrera, D. and T. Ault (2017): Insights from a New High-Resolution Drought Atlas for the Caribbean Spanning 1950–2016. J. Climate, 30, 7801–7825,

PAGES Hydro2k Consortium: Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Clim. Past, 13, 1851-1900,, 2017.

Parsons, L.A., G.R. Loope, J.T. Overpeck, T.R. Ault, R. Stouffer, and J.E. Cole (2017): Temperature and Precipitation Variance in CMIP5 Simulations and Paleoclimate Records of the Last Millennium. J. Climate, 30, 8885–8912,

S.G. Dee, L.A. Parsons, G.R. Loope, J.T. Overpeck, T.R. Ault, J. Emile-Geay, Improved spectral comparisons of paleoclimate models and observations via proxy system modeling: Implications for multi-decadal variability, In Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 476, 2017, Pages 34-46, ISSN 0012-821X,

Ault, T., Mankin, J. S., Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E. (2016). Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest.
Science Advances, 2 (10), e1600873. (link)

Monahan, W. B., Rosemartin, A., Gerst, K. L., Fisichelli, N. A., Ault, T., Schwartz, M. D., Gross, J. E., Weltzin, J. F. (2016). Climate change is advancing spring onset across the US
national park system. Ecosphere, 7 (10). (link)

Ault, T. R. (2016): Water resources: Island water stress. Nature Climate Change, 6(12):1062–1063.

Labe, Z., Ault, T., Zurita-Milla, R. (2016). Identifying anomalously early spring onsets in the CESM large ensemble project. Climate Dynamics, 1–18. (link)

Newman, M., M.A. Alexander, T.R. Ault, K.M. Cobb, C. Deser, E. Di Lorenzo, N.J. Mantua, A.J. Miller, S. Minobe, H. Nakamura, N. Schneider, D.J. Vimont, A.S. Phillips, J.D. Scott, and C.A. Smith, (2016). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited. J. Climate, 29, 4399–4427, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1. (link)

Ault, T.R., Mark D. Schwartz, Raul Zurita-Milla, Jake F. Weltzin, and Julio L. Betancourt (2015). Trends and Natural Variability of Spring Onset in the Coterminous United States as Evaluated by a New Gridded Dataset of Spring Indices. J. Climate, 28, 8363–8378.
doi: (pdf).

Ault, T.R., Raul Zurita-Milla, Mark D. Schwartz (2015). A Matlab© toolbox for calculating spring indices from daily meteorological data, Computers & Geosciences, Volume 83, Pages 46-53, ISSN 0098-3004,

Smerdon, J.E., S. Coats, and T.R. Ault (2016), Model-Dependent Spatial Skill in Pseudoproxy Experiments Testing Climate Field Reconstruction Methods for the Common Era, Climate Dynamics, 2684, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2684-0 (link).

Cook, B.I., T.R. Ault, and J.E. Smerdon, 2015: Unprecedented 21st-century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains. Sci. Adv., 1, no. 1, e1400082, doi:10.1126/sciadv.1400082 (link).

Ault, T. R., J.E. Cole, J.T. Overpeck, G.T. Pederson and D. Meko, (2014): Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00282.1 (

St. George, S., and Ault, T. R., (2014): The imprint of climate within Northern Hemisphere trees, Quaternary Science Reviews, 89, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.01.007 (

St. George, S., Ault, T.R., and Torbenson, M (2013): The rarity of absent growth rings in Northern Hemisphere forests outside the American Southwest. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (14), doi: 10.1002/grl.50743 (

Ault, T. R., G. M. Henebry, K. M. de Beurs, M. D. Schwartz, J. L. Betancourt, David Moore (2013): The False Spring of 2012, Earliest in the North American Record. EOS, 94, 181-183 (

Ault, T.R., C. Deser, M. Newman, and J. Emile-Geay (2013): Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (13), doi: 10.1002/grl.50647 (

Ault, T.R., J.E. Cole, G.T. Pederson, J.T, Overpeck, S. St. George, B. Otto-Bliesner, C. Deser, and C. Woodhouse (2013): The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium. Journal of Climate, 26 (16), doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00732.1 (

Cook, B.I., E.M. Wolkovich, J.T. Davies, T.R. Ault, J.L. Betancourt, J.M. Allen, K. Bolmgren, E.E. Cleland, T.M. Crimmins, N.J.B. Kraft, L.T. Lancaster, S.J. Mazer, G.J. McCabe, B.J. McGill, C.P., S. Pau, J. Regetz, N. Salamin, M.D. Schwartz, S.E. Travers. Sensitivity of spring phenology to warming across temporal and spatial climate gradients in two independent databases. Ecosystems, 15, 1283-1294, doi:10.1007/s10021-012-9584-5 (

Ault, T.R., J.E. Cole, and S. St. George, (2012): The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (21), L21 705, doi:10.1029/2012GL053424 (

Schwartz, M.D., T.R. Ault, and J.L. Betancourt (2012): Spring Onset Variations and Trends in the Continental USA: Past and Regional Assessment Using Temperature-Based Indices, International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.3625 (

Meehl, G. A., A. Hu, C. T., J. M. Arblaster, W. M. Washington, H. Teng, B. Sanderson, T. R. Ault, W. G. Strand and J. B. White III (2012): Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea level rise, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1529 (

Wolkovich, E.M., B.I. Cook, J.M. Allen, T.M. Crimmins, J.L. Betancourt, S. Travers, S. Pau, J. Regetz, T.J. Davies, N.J.B. Kraft, T.R. Ault, K. Bolmgren, S.J. Mazer, G.J. McCabe, B.J. McGill, C. Parmesan, N. Salamin, M.D. Schwartz and E.E. Cleland (2012): Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change. Nature, doi:10.1038/nature11014 (

Ault, T.R., A. Macalady, G.T. Pederson, J. Betancourt, M. Schwartz (2011): Northern Hemisphere modes of variability and the timing of spring in western North America. Journal of Climate, 24 (15): 4003-4014, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4069.1 (

McCabe, G., T.R. Ault, B. Cook, J. Betancourt, and M.D Schwartz (2011): Influences of ENSO and the PDO on the Timing of North American Spring. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.3400 (

Thompson, D.M., T.R. Ault, M.N. Evans, J.E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay (2011): Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral delta O-18. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L19705, doi: 10.1029/2011GL049656 (

St. George, S. and T.R. Ault (2011): Is energetic decadal variability a stable feature of the central Pacific Coast’s winter climate? Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D12102, doi:10.1029/2010JD015325 (

Pederson, G.T., S.T. Gray, T.R. Ault, W. Marsh, D.B. Fagre, A.G. Bunn, C. Woodhouse, and L.J. Graumlich (2011): Climatic controls on the snow melt hydrology of the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. Journal of Climate, 24(6): 1666-1687, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3729.1 (

Truebe, S., T.R. Ault and J. E. Cole (2010): A forward model of cave drip-water δ18O and application to speleothem records. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Vol. 9, 012022, doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/9/1/012022 (

Ault, T.R. and S. St George (2010): The magnitude of decadal and multi-decadal variability in North American precipitation. Journal of Climate, 23 (4): 842-850, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3013.1 (

Ault, T.R., J. E. Cole, M. N. Evans, H. Barnett, N.J. Abram, A.W. Tudhope, B.K. Linsley (2009): Intensified decadal variability in tropical climate during the late 19th century. Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (8), L08602, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036924 (

Damassa, T. D., Cole, J. E., Barnett, H. R., Ault, T. R. and McClanahan, T. R. (2006): Enhanced multidecadal climate variability in the seventeenth century from coral isotope records in the western Indian Ocean. Paleoceanography 21, 15 (