Tropical Variability

Understanding variability in the tropics on timescales of weeks to decades will be critically important to anticipating future climate risks such as hurricanes, floods and droughts, as well as understanding how the interplay between tropical and extratropical processes shapes climate change. My research into tropical variability is concentrated in empirical modeling of sub-seasonal to decadal variability and especially precipitation risk from landfalling hurricanes.

Ault, T.R., C. Deser, M. Newman, and J. Emile-Geay (2013): Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (13), doi: 10.1002/grl.50647 (

Thompson, D.M., T.R. Ault, M.N. Evans, J.E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay (2011): Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral delta O-18. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L19705, doi: 10.1029/2011GL049656 (

Ault, T.R., J. E. Cole, M. N. Evans, H. Barnett, N.J. Abram, A.W. Tudhope, B.K. Linsley (2009): Intensified decadal variability in tropical climate during the late 19th century. Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (8), L08602, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036924 (

Damassa, T. D., Cole, J. E., Barnett, H. R., Ault, T. R. and McClanahan, T. R. (2006): Enhanced multidecadal climate variability in the seventeenth century from coral isotope records in the western Indian Ocean. Paleoceanography 21, 15 (